The expansion of forests and the practice of irrigated agriculture contribute to reduced river flows in southern Europe during dry years

  1. Vicente Serrano, Sergio Martín 1
  2. El Kenawy, Ahmed 1
  3. Peña-Angulo, Dhais 2
  4. Lorenzo-Lacruz, Jorge 3
  5. Murphy, Conor 4
  6. Hannaford, Jamie 5
  7. Dadson, Simon 6
  8. Stahl, Kerstin 7
  9. Noguera, Iván 5
  10. Franquesa, Magí 1
  11. Fernández-Duque, Beatriz 1
  12. Domínguez-Castro, Fernando 1
  1. 1 Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
    info

    Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas

    Madrid, España

    ROR https://ror.org/02gfc7t72

  2. 2 Universidad de Zaragoza
    info

    Universidad de Zaragoza

    Zaragoza, España

    ROR https://ror.org/012a91z28

  3. 3 Universidad de La Rioja
    info

    Universidad de La Rioja

    Logroño, España

    ROR https://ror.org/0553yr311

  4. 4 Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland
  5. 5 Centre for Ecology and Geography, Wallingford, UK
  6. 6 University of Oxford
    info

    University of Oxford

    Oxford, Reino Unido

    ROR https://ror.org/052gg0110

  7. 7 Freiburg University, Freiburg, Germany
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Proceedings:
EGU General Assembly 2024. Vienna, Austria & Online | 14–19 April 2024

Year of publication: 2024

Type: Conference paper

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DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU24-5903 GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openOpen access editor
Institutional repository: lock_openOpen access Editor

Abstract

This research examines the changes in annual streamflow across Europe from 1962 to 2017, witha specific focus on the correlation between streamflow trends and climate dynamics, as well asphysiographic and land cover characteristics. The spatial distribution of streamflow trends alignsclosely with climate patterns, suggesting a climate-related influence. However, a detailed analysisat the basin scale reveals that the significant decline in streamflow in southern Europe cannot besolely attributed to climate dynamics. Instead, a discernible negative trend linked to non-climatefactors becomes apparent. Specifically, our study indicates that the primary drivers of negativestreamflow trends in southern Europe, especially during dry years, are forest growth and irrigatedagriculture. This is attributed to the higher proportion of green water consumption compared toblue water generation. These findings hold substantial implications, particularly in the context ofwidely adopted nature-based solutions for addressing climate change. This includes concernsabout carbon sequestration through forests and the planned expansion of irrigated agriculturallands in central and northern European countries to meet growing crop water demands. Suchdevelopments may potentially reduce the availability of water resources, leading to an increasedfrequency and severity of low flow periods.