Tendencias observadas y las proyecciones futuras en la ocurrencia de eventos cálidos invernales en la Cuenca del Ebro

  1. Juan Ignacio López-Moreno 1
  2. Ahmed El-Kenawy 1
  3. Jesús Revuelto 1
  4. C. Azorín-Molina 1
  5. Enrique Morán-Tejeda 1
  6. Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz
  7. Javier Zabalza 1
  8. Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano 1
  1. 1 Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
    info

    Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas

    Madrid, España

    ROR https://ror.org/02gfc7t72

Book:
Cambio climático. Extremos e impactos: [ponencias presentadas al VIII Congreso Internacional de la Asociación Española de Climatología]
  1. Concepción Rodríguez Puebla (coord.)
  2. Antonio Ceballos Barbancho (coord.)
  3. Nube González Reviriego (coord.)
  4. Enrique Morán Tejeda (coord.)
  5. Ascensión Hernández Encinas (coord.)

Publisher: Asociación Española de Climatología

ISBN: 978-84-695-4331-3

Year of publication: 2012

Pages: 143-151

Congress: Asociación Española de Climatología. Congreso (8. 2012. Salamanca)

Type: Conference paper

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Abstract

In this study we analyzed the observed trends for the period 1950–2006 in a number of climate indices related to the occurrence of winter warm events in the Ebro basin, northeast Iberian Peninsula. Climatic simulations using12 regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES database enabled calculation of the inter-model means for the projected evolution of these climatic indices for the time periods2021–2050 and 2051–2080.The results indicated a significant increase in the future occurrence of warm and very warm day and night events across the majority of the study area. The increase in the occurrence and duration of warm events was statistically correlated with the occurrence of melt events in areas at altitudes higher than 2000 m a.s.l. The RCMs predicted that the trends observed during the observation period will continue, and that the occurrence of warm day and night events and spells are very likely to increase progressively during this century. In some cases the occurrence of warm events was predicted to double during the period 2021–2050. For both the observed and projected periods, most of the indices showed a greater increase in the occurrence of these events in mountain areas of the basin (the Pyrenees and the Iberian mountains).

Data source: Dialnet