Valoración de empresas por descuento de flujos de cajaproyección de ratios y estimación del valor terminal por múltiplos

Resumen

The discounted cash-flow model is well established as the standard tool for the valuation of assets. Choice of the adequate discount rates aside, the modeling of the expected cash-flow stream is the main problem for application in practice. Where company valuation is concerned, this is specially true because the asset is assumed to last forever or, at least, for as long as it actually matters. Thus, theoretically the time horizon tends to infinity, there is no terminal value and an unlimited series of cash-flows would need to be forecasted. The staple solution is well known: a cash-flow stream forecast limited to a few years and a terminal value computed as a perpetuity. This possibility notwithstanding, this paper explores other options for estimating the last expected cash-flow (i.e., the terminal or exit value) using two Enterprise multiples: sales and EBITDA multiples. In addition, it addresses alternative ways to project the cash-flow stream up to the investor's exit point using sales ratios and their rates of change, and the expected sales growth. The model is illustrated with its application to a sample of firms in the Standard & Poor's 500 index. KEY WORDS: firm valuation, sales' ratios, relative valuation, exit value