Evaluation and improvement of empirical models of global solar irradiation: Case study northern Spain

  1. Antonanzas-Torres, F. 1
  2. Sanz-Garcia, A. 1
  3. Martínez-de-Pisón, F.J. 1
  4. Perpiñán-Lamigueiro, O. 2
  1. 1 Universidad de La Rioja
    info

    Universidad de La Rioja

    Logroño, España

    ROR https://ror.org/0553yr311

  2. 2 Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
    info

    Universidad Politécnica de Madrid

    Madrid, España

    ROR https://ror.org/03n6nwv02

Revista:
Renewable Energy

ISSN: 0960-1481

Año de publicación: 2013

Volumen: 60

Páginas: 604-614

Tipo: Artículo

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DOI: 10.1016/J.RENENE.2013.06.008 SCOPUS: 2-s2.0-84880172615 WoS: WOS:000323628600069 GOOGLE SCHOLAR

Otras publicaciones en: Renewable Energy

Objetivos de desarrollo sostenible

Resumen

This paper presents a new methodology to build parametric models to estimate global solar irradiation adjusted to specific on-site characteristics based on the evaluation of variable importance. Thus, those variables highly correlated to solar irradiation on a site are implemented in the model and therefore, different models might be proposed under different climates. This methodology is applied in a study case in La Rioja region (northern Spain). A new model is proposed and evaluated on stability and accuracy against a review of twenty-two already existing parametric models based on temperatures and rainfall in seventeen meteorological stations in La Rioja. The methodology of model evaluation is based on bootstrapping, which leads to achieve a high level of confidence in model calibration and validation from short time series (in this case five years, from 2007 to 2011).The model proposed improves the estimates of the other twenty-two models with average mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.195MJ/m2day and average confidence interval width (95% C.I., n=100) of 0.261MJ/m2day. 41.65% of the daily residuals in the case of SIAR and 20.12% in that of SOS Rioja fall within the uncertainty tolerance of the pyranometers of the two networks (10% and 5%, respectively). Relative differences between measured and estimated irradiation on an annual cumulative basis are below 4.82%. Thus, the proposed model might be useful to estimate annual sums of global solar irradiation, reaching insignificant differences between measurements from pyranometers. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.