Ballistic Coefficient Estimation for Reentry Prediction of Rocket Bodies in Eccentric Orbits Based on TLE Data

  1. Gondelach, D.J. 13
  2. Armellin, R. 3
  3. Lidtke, A.A. 2
  1. 1 University of Southampton
    info

    University of Southampton

    Southampton, Reino Unido

    ROR https://ror.org/01ryk1543

  2. 2 Kyushu Institute of Technology
    info

    Kyushu Institute of Technology

    Kitakyūshū, Japón

    ROR https://ror.org/02278tr80

  3. 3 University of Surrey
    info

    University of Surrey

    Guildford, Reino Unido

    ROR https://ror.org/00ks66431

Revista:
Mathematical Problems in Engineering

ISSN: 1024-123X

Año de publicación: 2017

Volumen: 2017

Tipo: Artículo

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DOI: 10.1155/2017/7309637 SCOPUS: 2-s2.0-85042510779 GOOGLE SCHOLAR

Otras publicaciones en: Mathematical Problems in Engineering

Repositorio institucional: lock_openAcceso abierto Editor

Objetivos de desarrollo sostenible

Resumen

Spent rocket bodies in geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) pose impact risks to the Earth's surface when they reenter the Earth's atmosphere. To mitigate these risks, reentry prediction of GTO rocket bodies is required. In this paper, the reentry prediction of rocket bodies in eccentric orbits based on only Two-Line Element (TLE) data and using only ballistic coefficient (BC) estimation is assessed. The TLEs are preprocessed to filter out outliers and the BC is estimated using only semimajor axis data. The BC estimation and reentry prediction accuracy are analyzed by performing predictions for 101 rocket bodies initially in GTO and comparing with the actual reentry epoch at different times before reentry. Predictions using a single and multiple BC estimates and using state estimation by orbit determination are quantitatively compared with each other for the 101 upper stages. © 2017 David J. Gondelach et al.