Hospital care for persons with AIDS in the European Union

  1. Postma, M.J. 5
  2. Tolley, K. 9
  3. Leidl, R.M. 10
  4. Downs, A.M. 2
  5. Beck, E.J. 7
  6. Tramarin, A.M. 6
  7. Flori, Y.A. 3
  8. Santin, M. 1
  9. Antoñanzas, F. 2
  10. Kornarou, H. 4
  11. Paparizos, V.C.C. 4
  12. Dijkgraaf, M.G.W. 5
  13. Borleffs, J. 8
  14. Luijben, A.J.P. 5
  15. Jager, J.C. 5
  1. 1 Bellvitge Hospital, Barcelona, Spain
  2. 2 Universidad de La Rioja
    info

    Universidad de La Rioja

    Logroño, España

    ROR https://ror.org/0553yr311

  3. 3 French Institute of Health and Medical Research
    info

    French Institute of Health and Medical Research

    París, Francia

    ROR https://ror.org/02vjkv261

  4. 4 National School of Public Health, Athens, Greece
  5. 5 Natl. Inst. Pub. Hlth./the Environ., Dept. of Public Health Forecasting, PO Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, Netherlands
  6. 6 San Bortolo Hospital, Vicenza, Italy
  7. 7 St. Mary's Hospital, London, United Kingdom
  8. 8 University Medical Center Utrecht
    info

    University Medical Center Utrecht

    Utrecht, Holanda

    ROR https://ror.org/0575yy874

  9. 9 University of Nottingham
    info

    University of Nottingham

    Nottingham, Reino Unido

    ROR https://ror.org/01ee9ar58

  10. 10 University of Ulm
    info

    University of Ulm

    Ulm, Alemania

    ROR https://ror.org/032000t02

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Revista:
Health Policy

ISSN: 0168-8510

Año de publicación: 1997

Volumen: 41

Número: 2

Páginas: 157-176

Tipo: Artículo

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DOI: 10.1016/S0168-8510(97)00019-5 PMID: 10173092 SCOPUS: 2-s2.0-0030839383 WoS: WOS:A1997XN38900005 GOOGLE SCHOLAR

Otras publicaciones en: Health Policy

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Resumen

This study estimates the current and future hospital resources for AIDS patients in the European Union (EU), using multinational scenario analysis (EU Concerted Action BMHICT-941723). In collaboration with another EU- project ('Managing the Costs of HIV Infection'), six national European studies on the utilization of hospital care for AIDS have been selected to provide the data for our analysis. The selection criteria involve recentness, quality, comparability, accessibility and representativeness. Baseline hospital resource utilization is estimated for hospital inpatient days and outpatient contacts, using a standardized approach controlling for two severity stages of AIDS (chronic stage and late stage). The epidemiological part of the study is based on standard models for backcalculating HIV incidence and projecting AIDS incidence, prevalence and mortality. In the next step, baseline resource utilization is linked to epidemiological information in a mixed prevalence and mortality-based approach. Several scenarios render different future epidemiological developments and hospital resource needs. For the year 1999, hospital bed needs of 10 000-12 700 in the EU are indicated, representing an increase of 20-60% compared to the estimated current (1995) level. The projected range for 1999 corresponds to a maximum of 0.65% of all hospital beds available in the EU. The growth in the number of outpatient hospital contacts is projected to possibly exceed that of inpatient days up to 1.82 million in 1999. Our methodology illustrates that estimation of current and future hospital care for AIDS has to be controlled for severity stages, to prevent biases. Further application of the multinational approach is demonstrated through a 'what-if' analysis of the potential impact of combination triple therapy for HIV/AIDS. Estimation of the economic impact of other diseases could as well benefit from the severity-stages approach.